Business travel volume will decrease significantly in 2025 amidst US Govt actions: GBTA

As a result of recent US government actions including tariffs, cross-border policies and entry restrictions, global business travel professionals are newly navigating a complex and uncertain landscape regarding the potential impact on business travel volume, spending and revenue for 2025. According to a new poll conducted by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), a significant portion of over 900 global industry respondents are anticipating declines ahead and overall optimism has taken a hit in the last few weeks, reflecting the uncertainty gripping the sector and other industries.

Recent US government actions were defined in the GBTA poll as tariffs on imported products, US entry restrictions for travellers from specific countries, advisories against travel to the US, cross-border policies resulting in detainment risks, and decreased business travel for US federal employees. As a result of these multiple initiatives, the poll reveals that:

• Less than half of global buyers (44%) anticipate their organization’s business travel spending and volume in 2025 will not be impacted, compared to 25% of travel suppliers who say the same for their business travel revenue.
• Almost a third (29%) of global travel buyers expect a decline in business travel volume at their companies in 2025, averaging a 21% decrease. Additionally, a fairly large portion of travel buyers (19%) are uncertain about what the impact will be.
• Related, 27% of buyers now predict a 20% decrease on average in their business travel spending this year. (Notably, with global business travel spending forecast to reach $1.63 trillion USD in 2025, that could represent a potential decline in spending of up to $88 billion.)
• 37% of travel suppliers and travel management company (TMC) professionals anticipate a decline of 18% on average in related revenue.
• Because of overall concerns, only 31% of global industry professionals remain optimistic about the overall industry outlook for this year, while 40% are neutral. This marks a significant decline from GBTA’s November 2024 poll where 67% of global industry professionals reported an optimistic outlook for 2025 and 26% were neutral.

“While the outlook for global business travel was incredibly strong coming into 2025, our research now shows increasing concerns and uncertainty within our industry, considering recent actions taken by the US government. Traveling for work plays a vital role in supporting business growth, resilient economies, strong diplomatic ties and valuable connections,” said Suzanne Neufang, CEO, GBTA. “Productive and essential business travel is threatened in times of economic uncertainty or in an environment of additional barriers and restrictions. This undermines economic prosperity and damages the many sectors that rely on global business travel to survive and thrive.”

Neufang added there are two key factors to watch that would influence longer-term impact for business travel: if there’s sustained economic pressure or uncertainty weighing on company budgets and if cross-border travel and global workforce mobility to and from the US are restricted.

The GBTA poll reflects responses from travel managers (buyers), suppliers, travel management companies and other travel intermediaries from across four regions and 45 countries. Additional key findings include:

• 7% of buyer organizations have revised their corporate travel policies for travel to or from the US since January 2025, and another one-quarter (25%) say they are planning to or will consider doing so in the future. 64% are staying the course.
• Additionally, up to 20% have or are considering cancelling, moving or pulling attendance from meetings and events located in the US.
• 10% are planning or considering cancelling employee attendance at US events.
• When it comes to relocating meetings or events from the US, a total of 14% say their organization has already done so (8%) or is considering it (6%). Companies located outside of the US are three times more likely to relocate meetings to somewhere other than the US.
• Respondents’ top concerns for long-term impact of US government actions are related to economics ─ namely business travel costs (54%) and potential budget cuts (40%) ─ along with additional travel processing and administration needs such as visas or documentation (46%). This was followed closely by traveler-focused concerns such as employee willingness to travel to the US and increased safety and duty of care (both at 37%).
• Additionally, when asked if they personally know someone whose trip has been affected by US border or travel policy changes, 23% of global industry professionals say they do.

A total of 905 responses were received by GBTA from global travel buyers, suppliers and other industry professionals across North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia-Pacific, Latin America and Africa and Middle East for the poll fielded 31 March to  8 April , 2025.