Q3-2023 continued the trend from H1-2023, signalling a levelling of rapid travel growth from late 2021. Whilst travel demand was growing and positive, the increases have moderated for a third quarter, according to FCM Consulting’s latest Global Quarterly Trend Report.

The key outtake showed that Q1-2024 is forecast to be +71.8 million (+5.3 per cent) more seats globally than 2019, for the same period. However, the final 2023 seat capacity is forecast to be -2.2 per cent on 2019.

Looking at the numbers, Europe is the only region with reduced capacity – being down two per cent. Throughout the rest of the world, Africa leads the way with a predicted increase of 14 per cent, followed by Middle East (up 11 per cent), Latin America (eight per cent increase), North America (up eight per cent), Asia (seven per cent rise) and Australasia (flat).

One of the biggest obstacles the industry has faced during this recovery period has been lack of airline capacity and competition. Conditions are improving, which is expected to benefit business travellers as the years progress, but the concern remains regarding the lack of available seats on services between Australia and Europe, via the Middle East.

Reported by IATA in August 2023, global Passenger Load Factors (PLF) were at 84.6 per cent, with domestic PLF sat at 83.5 per cent, and international PLF reporting 85.4 per cent.

Domestic PLF across major markets was led by the USA at 84.5 per cent, followed by India (83.9 per cent), Brazil at 83.1 per cent, Japan (82.5 per cent), and Australia at 82.3 per cent. International PLF was led by North America at 87.7 per cent, as the highest performing region compared to the lowest, Africa at 76.2 per cent.

When it comes to accommodation, hotel occupancy levels averaged 68^ per cent per month in 2023. Over the past six months corporate average room rates (ARR) have plateaued, signalling rate stability. YTD-2023* ARR compared to 2022 in North America was USD$250, Australia/New Zealand USD$160, Europe USD$194, Asia USD$173, Middle East/Africa USD$203, and Latin America USD$128.

In terms of car hire, the overall global average daily rate (ADR) has increased by four per cent YTD**-2023 versus 2022. The ADR forecast is rate increases will stabilise to +2-3 per cent in 2024.

Andy Hegley, Managing Director for FCM UK, Ireland and the Netherlands, commented; “This continuous growth throughout the travel industry is encouraging and something we all counted on. Although Europe’s seat capacity has dipped in the last quarter, I expect that will be a temporary and will soon increase – especially with the recent news of London Stansted Airport receiving planning permission to extend its terminal building.

“In FCM Consulting’s report, they found significant price increases in comparison to the previous quarter and year-on-year; this would be expected to happen when capacity is lowered as the demand is continuing to grow. I actually see this as a positive, an indicator of a bright future for both business and leisure travel.”