Over 40% of commercial passenger and freighter aircraft manufactured between 2019 and 2038 will be delivered to customers in Asia, according to the latest Cirium Fleet Forecast.

The 2019 Cirium Fleet Forecast for commercial jets and turboprops estimates that 48,860 new passenger and freighter aircraft will be delivered over the next 20 years, worth an estimated USD3.1 trillion. Passenger traffic is forecast to grow at 4.5% per year over the forecast period and freight traffic at 4.0%.

“The new Cirium Fleet Forecast shows that the centre of gravity in the aviation industry is shifting eastwards. By 2038, the combined Asia-Pacific and China fleet will increase its global share from 30% to 42%, followed by the North and Latin Americas (28%), Europe and Russia (21%), Middle East (6%) and Africa (3%),” said Rahul Oberai, VP Sales, in APAC for Cirium.

The news comes at a time of increasing uncertainty. While 2019 marks the 10th consecutive year of global airline net profits, reaching USD225 billion for the cycle, annual passenger traffic growth is slowing.

“A growth slowdown isn’t surprising. The WTO’s World Trade Outlook Indicator is the weakest since 2010, and poor cargo traffic results in the first half of 2019 bear out a weakening market, exacerbated by the US-China trade dispute. With fuel comprising a quarter of airline costs, oil price volatility is also a concern,” said Oberai.

“Looking long-term, the global commercial aircraft fleet will grow by almost 25,000″

The 2019 Cirium Fleet Forecast used Ascend by Cirium’s 2019 Full-Life Base Values to estimate the total value of new deliveries at around USD3.1 trillion. This is a more pragmatic way to predict actual business values than the manufacturer list prices often used in other forecasts.

“The industry has a firm-order backlog of over 14,000 aircraft, or more than seven years of production at current rates. Looking long-term, the global commercial aircraft fleet will grow by almost 25,000 — or 3.4% annually — to meet traffic growth forecasts. This will take the operational aircraft fleet to 54,500 by the end of 2038, of which 46,800 will be passenger jets,” Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy, Ascend by Ciriumsaid.