The number of tourists and China’s income from tourism may slump about 30% this year compared with 2019 because of the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on the sector, according to a new report. Released by the Tourism Research Centre of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), the report lays out three scenarios: optimistic, cautiously optimistic and cautious.

The optimistic estimate sees tourist numbers falling 23% to 465,900, and tourism revenue dropping 26% to CNY 4.8 trillion (USD 679.7 billion). The cautiously optimistic outlook projects decline of 29% and 33%, while the cautious scenario pins the size of the setback at 35% and 40%.

“This is the deepest and largest impact on China’s tourism industry with the broadest range since the reform and opening up period began in 1978,” said Song Rui, author of the report and director of CASS research centre.

It also predicts 31 million tourists and CNY 16.6 billion (USD 2.3 billion) revenue during the upcoming five-day May Day holiday. That represents declines of 84.1% and 85.9% over the same period last year.