The International Air Transport Association (IATA)’s global air cargo markets report for September 2024 showed continuing strong annual growth in demand.

IATA director-general Willie Walsh remarked: “September performance brought continued good news for air cargo markets. With 9.4 percent year-on-year growth, cargo volumes continued to mark all-time highs for demand.”

Walsh added that yields are improving, as there are up by 11.7 percent from  2023 and are now 50 percent above 2019 levels. 

All this points to a strong finish for this year. For longer-term trends, the air cargo sector is currently keeping an eye on the outcome of the US election for indications of how US trade policy will evolve.

September in a nutshell

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), rose by 9.4 percent compared to September 2023 levels (10.5 percent for international operations) for a 14th consecutive month of growth. 

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), increased by 6.4 percent compared to September 2023 (8.1 percent for international operations). 

This continued to be largely related to the growth in international belly capacity, which rose by 10.3 percent, extending the trend of double-digit annual capacity growth to 41 consecutive months.

Monthly performance by region

Asia-Pacific airlines saw 11.7 percent year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in September. Capacity increased by 8.5 percent year-on-year.

North American carriers saw 3.8 percent year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in September. Capacity increased by 4.2 percent year-on-year.

European carriers saw 11.7 percent year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in September. Capacity increased 7.5 percent year-on-year.

Middle Eastern carriers saw 10.1 percent year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in September. Capacity increased 2.9 percent year-on-year.

Latin American carriers saw 20.9 percent year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in September, the strongest growth among the regions. Capacity increased 7.9 percent year-on-year.

African airlines saw 1.7 percent year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in September, the slowest among regions. September capacity increased by 13.9 percent year-on-year. 

IATA also pointed out that international routes experienced exceptional traffic levels for a fifth month, with a 10.5% year-on-year increase in September. Airlines are benefiting from rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean shipping.

Points for consideration

The report’s authors pointed out that September growth may be attributed to several factors observed during the month. 

Year-on-year, industrial production rose 1.6 percent while global goods trade increased 2.8 percent for a sixth consecutive month of growth. Monthly trade grew by 1.4 percent, the highest in seven months.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) for global manufacturing output, and the PMI for new export orders, were both below the 50-mark at 49.4 and 47.5 respectively, indicating contraction. 

Also, US headline inflation, based on the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4 percent in September, marking the seventh straight month of easing inflation. 

In the same month, the inflation rate in the EU fell by 0.3 percentage points to 2.1 percent, continuing a process started in January 2023. 

China’s consumer inflation remained low at 0.4 percent in September amid concerns of an economic slowdown.